%0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Change %D 2006 %T Impacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios on plant species in Europe %A Bakkenes %A Eickhout %A Alkemade %K analyse de scénario %K biodiversité %K biodiversity %K biological diversity %K changement climatique %K climate %K climate change %K climate model %K conservation %K convention %K diversity %K ecosystem %K Europe %K impact %K modèle climatique %K modélisation %K modelling %K profil de stabilisation %K scenario analysis %K stabilisation profiles %K temperature %V 16 %X

With the use of goals from the Convention on Biological Diversity we evaluated two climate stabilisation profiles on their merits for conservation of biodiversity, comparing them with a baseline profile. Focusing on plant ecosystems at the pan-European level, we concluded that although a maximum global-mean temperature increase of 2 1C is likely to be met in a 550 ppmv CO2-equivalent stabilisation profile, large areas of ecosystems in Europe will be affected. Most of the impacts manifest themselves in northern countries, with a high net increase of plant species, and in Mediterranean countries, with a decrease in the number of plant species and stable area. Other impacts are less robust, given the regional variation in climate results for different climate models.